“INDIAN ELEPHANT MUST TANGO WITH CARE”


News : Indian Prime Minister Modi is to meet Chinese President XI Jinping on the side-lines of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit at Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) to be held on 13-14 June 2019.

There are many blurbs and snippets of ‘Good friends’, Modi and Xi Jinping meeting, in Bishkek to discuss various issues of trade and commerce in a world unsettled by President Trump’s America First policy.

China which is at the receiving end of Trump’s policies would definitely like India on its side. Hence there is a lot of sweet talk from the Chinese media towards Modi. Chinese are well aware of the mushy sentimentality and naivete of Indians in the hard world of international politics.

In international relations, dealings with other countries would depend upon a number of factors, personal aims, ambitions and confidence of its leaders, national interests, economic and military clout, ideologies and history, just to name a few, and not necessarily in that order.

Realpolitik is all about transactional outcome.

In matters of state and serious diplomacy, even allowing for personal likes and dislikes, personal friendships and geniality go only so far in achieving ensuring national objectives.

Here it would be interesting to note what President Trump had to say about the meeting he is expected to have with Xi Jinping on the side lines of SCO.

“ I have a great relationship with him. He’s actually an incredible guy… but he’s for China and I’m for the US.” BLOOMBERG

In the case of China, even cursory perusal of its history will indicate an inherent tendency to expand and dominate, in correspondence with its growth in economic and military power. During the last century China has not only been laying claims but has managed to occupy neighboring countries like Tibet and Xinyang, and also extend its hegemony on the high seas, The Nine Dash line, unilaterally projected by China, claims areas that as per laws of the sea belong to Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia. (China even “added a tenth-dash line to the east of Taiwan island in 2013 as a part of its official sovereignty claim to the disputed territories in the South China Sea.[11][13][14” ])Wiki.

At present China is a fast growing power, and among the strongest in the world.1 It has a political and administrative set up with a strong leadership due to which it is able to harness its potentials effectively and efficiently.2

China has avoided major military confrontations after 1979, when it last invaded Vietnam and clashed on the banks of Ussuri R with Russia.. However it has not desisted from frequent testing of its military and naval might and provoking responses of neighbors in from Ussuri R to Himalayas on land and in the South China Sea, where it has built up islands big enough to land aircraft and berths to dock naval vessels. (Dhoklam is only one among the latest in small time ‘provoke & test’ incursions).

In its strategic calculations China has accorded high priority to the access and domination of the Indian Ocean. An oil deficient country, China imports vast quantities, up to 10 million barrels a day, of crude and natural gas. Ships carrying millions of tonnes of oil and gas have to cross the Indian Ocean and the Straits of Malacca on the way home from the Middle East. While China’s desire to safeguard its trade routes in the Indian Ocean,3 and quest for a safe and clear land route to the southern oceans is natural, the methods adopted, and the steps taken to achieve the objectives are clearly producing negative reactions in South Asia. The pressures exerted on countries like Myanmar, Malaysia, Srilanka, Pakistan, and Maldives to undertake road and port projects are raising hackles locally.

A positive approach by China would lead to peace, security and prosperity for all in Asia.

If China accepts that every South Asian country has a right to live and be independent, it will stop propping up and inciting neighbours to fight with one another. It was the colonial mindset, and China should avoid it in its dealing with neighbours.

A positive attitude towards India and other South Asian Countries would have easily opened up land routes and through Myanmar, Bangladesh and India. It would have raised trade relations to even higher levels. Its land routes would have been

secure. India with its growing naval power could have taken easily care of and secured the high seas in the Indian Ocean for safe movements of Chinese vessels.

Even better, the India-China border of 3380 km stretching over inhospitable mountainous terrain, would have been peaceful; making redundant large deployments of Chinese forces.

However, the uncompromising approach adopted by China in its dealings with neighboring states has led to rise in unnecessary tensions, imprudence in Chinese financial transactions, reduction in security, increase in terrorism and support to terrorist organisations.

Flawed Chinese policies today, in respect of its relations with other south Asian countries, have compelled it to supporting a Pakistan run by its obscurantist military. The China Pakistan Economic corridor, though good on paper, and costing $ 60 billion +, is fraught with growing problems. Pakistan is a state that is financially unviable today, and a high risk area for any judicious entrepreneur to invest in. China is sinking over $ 60 billion there. Will it ever recover that amount?

However,a major Indian concern is the fact that CPEC passes through Indian territory illegally occupied by Pakistan. China is not even willing to accept this fact and is going ahead with the CPEC project completely ignoring India’s concerns.

Chinese have so far turned a blind eye to the export of terrorism by Pakistani terrorist organisations. The case of JeM and Masood Azar is too familiar to bear repetition. It must be noted that repeated friendly overtures by India and Modi had no effect in declaring Azar a terrorist. It took the combined efforts of USA, UK and France to move XI Jinping to an acceptance of declaring Azar as a terrorist.

A matter of cultural trait, Indians tend to be emotional and sentimental, and accept others blindly, to a fault. Delusion that going out of the way to express friendship, hoping that personal friendship and amenability will subsume national interests have clouded the judgement of Indian leaders since independence. Mushy idealism and sentimentalism have lead to India abrogating national interests and losing time and again to worldly wise leaders from other countries.

The best of bargaining chips have been frittered away by Indian negotiators and Prime Ministers, from Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi, Morarji Desai, Rajiv Gandhi. To IK Gujaral, and Manmohan Singh. Loss of Tibet, a third of Kashmir, areas in the Rann of Kutch, surrender and betrayal of intelligence assets , the list is long and excruciating.

Coming back to Prime Minister Modi, his ‘goodwill and personal friendship’ with Nawaz Sharif did not get India anywhere in its quest for peace and security, or elimination of cross border, state sponsored terrorism with Pakistan.

In the case of China comparatively quite borders in the North should not lull India to the threats emanating from the encircling strategy adopted by China in the Indian ocean and the littoral states. In pursuit of ‘Active Defense’ as explained in its

Science of Military Strategy , China’s Naval forces are being augmented on a monthly basis. By 2030 China will possess at least 5 aircraft carriers, 50 + destroyers, 50 + frigates, and 25 submarines of which at least 6 will be Nuclear. Chinese Navy plans to dominate not just the China Sea but the Indian ocean and beyond to the Suez and the Gulf of Aqaba.

Historically China has never given up on its claims to territory on land or Sea. It has boycotted, ignored, or simply brushed aside any objections to its claims. Its stand on Aksai Chin, McMahon Line are known to us. The manner it has rejected and brushed aside the verdict of Haig tribunal’s ruling in South China Sea case which upheld the case of Philippines and pulled up China is among the latest approach to international behaviour.

Luckily India has a pragmatic leader in Prime Minister Modi. With Shri Doval and Shri Jaishankar, who have proved their mettle more than once in matters of security and diplomacy as advisors, India can expect the best possible outcome in the SCO meeting.

The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled on Tuesday that China’s claims to the resource-rich and strategically vital South China Sea had no legal basis. China, which had boycotted the case brought by the Philippines, vowed to ignore the ruling, saying the UN-backed tribunal had no jurisdiction over the case and accused it of bias. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/07/philippines-china-respect-hague-ruling-160714055516116.html

Kolkata : Doctors in Government Hospitals On Strike


It is most unfortunate that junior government doctors in Kolkata have gone on strike. Doctors are fearing for their future safety and are compelled to ask for police protection just to do their job. Doctors are afraid to take up their posts, fearing beatings by political goons in future also.

Thousands of patients are suffering because the government refuses to provide basic security and protection to doctors. To defuse the situation Government of Mamta Bannerjee must immediately give protection to all doctors and call the doctors for a meeting.

Doctors in government hospitals across India are soft targets for netas and goondas. Patients are almost always in bad shape when they are brought into government hospitals, after home remedies have failed, local quacks have complicated matters, professional and qualified doctors in private practice or smaller hospitals have put their hands up on hopeless cases.

Government hospitals invariably overcrowded and understaffed. All doctors are over worked and stressed beyond limits due to haphazard working hours and very poor infrastructure and lack of minimum facilities in work place.

While anxiety is normal with persons accompanying a patient, many believe that doctors have the Duty and responsibility to ensure revival and survival of even cases DOA, and relations have a right to beat up doctors if the patients succumb inspite of best possible treatment.

Beating up doctors in government hospitals has become a regular affair in India. It happens almost every month in Delhi hospitals.

The latest incident in Kolkata is just a symptom of the real problems of poor infrastructure, understaffing, and sheer bullying attitudes.

It is indeed a terrible state of affairs if doctors who strive day and night to save patients have to beg for their own protection. Bullies and goondas beating up doctors must be arrested immediately and FIRs registered.

In this connection also see Attacking docs? Delhi must follow Karnataka

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Lalloo Laughs


Is  it true that Lalloo and his friends laughed on hearing the news of president of Peru committing suicide over a trivial matter.

Facing arrest for indulging in bribery.

https://eur01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.app.goo.gl%2FAC8NnSa1Ec8tPgxSA&data=02%7C01%7C%7C89e366cc58f6405d0c6208d6c3d38ad5%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636911710658893950&sdata=0qWMFAU1h3MGh5E1h372rUYv%2FCrqDbLl0zcJcNPPNd0%3D&reserved=0

 

Former Peruvian President Alan García has died after shooting himself as police arrived at his home to arrest him over bribery allegations.

Mr García was rushed to hospital in the capital, Lima. His death was confirmed by current President Martín Vizcarra.

A crowd of supporters gathered outside the hospital building, and were held back by a line of police officers.

Mr García was accused of taking bribes from Brazilian construction company Odebrecht – claims he denied.

Mr García served as president from 1985 to 1990 and again from 2006 to

Return of Commander Jhadav from Pakistani Custody


    I have given a brief Reply already to question on IJC and Indian diplomacy. #

India has consistently maintained that Commander Jhadav is not in anyway connected with any espionage agency, and has been kidnapped by Pakistan from Iran. Pakistan has for purely propaganda purposes branded him as a spy, subjected him to torture, and had an illegitimate and unlawful order passed for his execution. India then upstaged Pakistan by taking up the issue in the IJC, and in 2017 got an order restraining Pakistan from executing Commander Jhadav.

At present Jhadav is still in Pakistani custody.

In such cases,

  1. Pakistan can hold him as long as possible, even after finalisation of the case in IJC, and release him as a ‘good will measure’ at some future date to extract maximum propaganda mileage ( Wg Cdr Abhinandan affair).

2. Swap or exchange him for one or more Pakistani spies / terrorists in Indian custody.

3. Keep Jhadav indefinitely in custody.

4. Execute officially.

5. Allow Jhadav to die ‘accidentally’ , or due to denial of medical attention.

Regarding When will Commander Jhadav be returned to India, based on prior international incidents involving alleged and real spies, the possibilities appear to indicate a return of Commander Jhadav, though it is difficult state when. &&

In view of the publicity received in this case, Pakistan may hesitate to execute or do away with Commander Jhadav. However his continuous custody will be reflected as a weakness of the Indian government, viewed positively by Pakistani populace, a great plus point for Pakistani state run by the Pakistani army,

Pakistan will hold him as a trump card in every discussion on any matter with India.

It will be upto Indian government and its agencies to bring pressure on Pakistan to release Commander Jhadav. Surely Government of India and its agencies must be working hard, through different channels in their own way, to obtain his release.

Once he is released he may return back to his civil life in India, as a normal citizen. May even get some compensatory grant from the government.

All in all, it is the first time that the Indian government has taken so much effort for an Indian citizen in Pakistani custody. A great move forward. considering how the earlier governments have left more than 50 POWS from as far back as 1971, languishing in Pakistani prison.

#.      Finally, International Court of Justice stayed the execution of            Kulbhushan Yadav. How do you see this decision? Is it another              feather in India’s diplomacy?

&&.    Spy swap: US and Russia hand over agents in full media glare

What is the possible outcome of USA against Pakistan for using its F-16 aircraft to attack Indian army base


 

This was in reply to a Query on Quora
Ramakrishnan C M, Colonel, Indian Army, retd, BSc, PGDM, MA(Political Science)

 

Nothing much.

Pakistan has been using weapons and wepons systems supplied by USA directly or through its NATO / CENTO/ Middle East allies regularly since 1965. It has done so openly and in flagrant breach of limitations agreements with supplier nations. Dozens of Patton Tanks displayed in Indian cantonements are those that Pakistani IST Armoured Division lost in its battle of ASA, Uttar in September 1965.

Subsequently Pakistan has utilised weapons systems, aircraft, ships and even submarines in its repeated misadventures against India.*

A major concern of USA is the fact that a low technology fighter like mig 21 could down one of its sophisticated aircraft, thereby reducing its aura of superiority and invincibility, compared to other fighters in the international markets.

Another concern would be the availability of F16 systems for evaluation by experts from Russia or India . This does not appear possible since there has been no information on any complete system having been retrieved from the wreckage site, which anyhow was in Pakistan only.

Pakistan has been admistered a slight slap on the hand now and then by USA, like when their demand for F 16 was reduced from 60 to 14, and Pakistan was made to pay for them. Pressler Amendments, Symington Amendments, have all been superseded through presidential certificates, even on nuclear proliferation by Pakistan.

Pakistan has through its projection as a frontline state against Communism in general (from 1948), and againstRussians in Afghanistan became the blue eyed boy in Asia. It has developed excellent rapport in Pentagon, State department and among prominent members of its political parties. Its China card is gathering weightage enough to rattle the policy makers in USA. Add to it the role USA is expecting Pakistan to play in the ongoing talks with Afghan Taliban, to enable a face saving exit of its troops.

Rhetorics apart nothing much can be expected on the utilisation of F16 against India now or in near future.

*US arms Pakistan with 14 combat aircrafts, 59 trainer jets, 374 armoured carriers

India had in the past have opposed the transfer of such arms to Pakistan as it believes Islamabad would eventually use the fighter jets against it

When Will China Stop Supporting Pakistan


Ed

Ramakrishnan C M
Ramakrishnan C M, Colonel, Indian Army, retd, BSc, PGDM, MA(Political Science)

 

       China’s relationship with Pakistan has provided it with good dividends over decades and there is no reason at present that China should let go of its South western neighbour.

      Sergey Lavrov’s ‘Post – West world order’ is In its early nascent state, with China as the major player in Asia; with Eurasia and maybe the world to follow. China has had decisive leadership over the last three decades, and has honed its abilities to grab strategic opportunities to consolidate its position economically and militarily. China’s relationship with Pakistan should be viewed with its geography, trade and hegemonic ambitions in mind.

    China’s relationship with Pakistan has provided it with good dividends over decades and there is no reason at present that China should let go of its Southwestern neighbour.

Some of the major advantages of China’s support of Pakistan are:

CPEC Route Gwadar: #

CPEC Route Gwadar: The difference between CPEC Eastern route and CPEC Western Route

#(CPEC Bulletin)

  1. Chinese access to the blue waters of the Arabian Sea, from the Port of Gawdar in Baluchistan will enable domination of the Arabian Sea with its expanding spread of naval bases. Port of Gawdor will enable transhipment and passage of crude oil and petroleum products utilising the CPEC highways under construction. This will eliminate the Malacca funnels and choke points on the shipping routes from Middle East to Eastern shores of China. (Expected to save upto 10 days in transit time)

2. China is investing heavily in the CPEC, estimates varying from  42 billions to 62 billions. This will enable Chinese infrastructure behemoths to move to Pakistan and set up manufacturing plants and move finished products to and from Pakistan. If Pakistan can manage the inputs  judiciously, it can benefit greatly from CPEC.

3. “So far, China insists that CPEC has purely economic aims, while Pakistanis continue to assume it is a strategic project that would enhance the country’s security.”*

4.Minerals of Baluchistan are an additional attraction for The Chinese.

5. Afghanistan is an area where the Chinese are keen to move in, Afghanistan has an abundance  of mineral wealth also. However even though Chinese may not be comfortable with the Taliban, they expect that with Pakistan on its side Taliban will be pliable, after all Pakistan has been fully supportive of Afgan Taliban in its attempt to overthrow the lawfully elected Afgan government.

6. China’s efforts to silence the Muslim Uygurs, by various means including concentration camps and ‘education ‘ has been condemned universally by all countries except Pakistan. China expects that Pakistan will not take up the issues of Muslims in China and keep control of its homegrown terrorist organisations like, JeM, etc.

7. China is only too happy that Indian security forces are kept busy by Pakistan on its western borders. Pakistan gets its military equipment almost free from USA, as also billions in aid. India has to pay for every single  item of defence purchase. India’s resources are limited and instead of infrastructure and welfare projects, India is compelled to divert scarce resources to defence equipment. Under these circumstances India will be at least 20 years behind China in every aspect, economic or military.

The above are some of the issues that will continue to consolidate Chinese Pakistani relationship. So there is no reason for China to stop supporting Pakistan.

Wikipedia

  • Anhui Construction Engineering Group.
  • Anhui Foreign Economic Construction Group.
  • Beijing Construction Engineering Group.
  • CDIG.
  • CEIEC.
  • CGCOC Group.
  • Chalieco.
  • China Communications Construction (China Harbour Engineering, China Road and Bridge Corporation, Zhenhua)
  • * Reimagining Pakistan by Hussain Haqqani

**China, the largest trade partner of Pakistan, has further increased its exports to $11.458bn; an increase of $1.381bn compared to FY17. However, exports to China increased by just $120 million to $1.744bn, creating a trade gap of $9.7bn which accounts for over 30 per cent of the overall trade deficit of the country. (Dawn.com)

Do Taliban belong to Afghanistan or Pakistan? What does Taliban mean and what do they want?


“The word Taliban comes from tālib, “student” in Arabic”.

Under Zia Ul Haq, the then president of Pakistan, a number of madarssas  were opened to cater for fighters to take on the Army of USSR which had moved in to Afghanistan. USA was very Keen to ensure that Russians lose their war in Afghanistan and lose face around the world. USA and Saudi Arabia funded Pakistan and also provided heavy weapons including Stinger missiles for use against Russian aircraft.

      Hundreds of uneducated and unemployed Pashtun youth were brainwashed in these  Madarassas with extreme fanatical Islamic views and let loose inAfganistan. Pashtuns form the majority of Fighters in Taliban, though there are Turkmens, Tajiks, Uzbeks and even a few Hazaras.

Afganistan has over ten ethnic groups. It is a land that has never allowed any external force to dominate for any length of time. Tribal loyalties are on the top of the cultural scale followed by Islam. A Central government in Kabul  has limited say in how things are governed in the urban areas,  and  almost none in the hinterlands.

Consequent to the Russian army pulling out, Taliban took over the country and established a government. Pakistan was the first to recognise Taliban government and persuaded Saudi Arabia to follow suit. Pakistan assumed that Taliban government would be a puppet, working under its directions. But the Afgan Taliban, even though funded trained and supported by Pakistan proved difficult to handle.

Taliban giving protection to members of Al Qaida, Osama bin Laden, subsequent US intervention and displacement of Taliban are a part of history. Under attack by US forces Taliban moved to Pakistan where it was given sanctuary.

After the debacles of 1965 and 1971 Pakistani army had formulated a policy of ‘depth’, ie Afghanistan will form a safe staging area for its forces in case of problems with india on its eastern front. This meant a pliable government in Afghanistan. However with Taliban having been sent packing and a democratically elected government in Afghanistan in  place Pakistan found itself without its perceived ‘depth’.

Therefore for the past nearly two decades Pakistan has been needling the Taliban to fight and destabilise the Afghan government, which the international community had managed to set up against all odds. Today Taliban controls nearly half of Afghanistan, and USA is planning to withdraw its 8500 troops in Afghanistan. If that happens Approximately 12000 allied troops will also leave. Afgan Security forces are no match today against Taliban which is being backed by Pakistani army. It is only a matter of time before Taliban moves into Kabul as apart of a coalition government or even a complete domination. This is what Pakistan is aiming for. A puppet Taliban regime in Afghanistan.

As mentioned earlier, Pashtuns form the Majority of fighters in the Taliban. Unfortunately for Pashtuns, the Durand Line, an artificial divide, a perfidy perpetrated by the British has separated the ethnic Pashtuns in two, Afghanistan has never accepted the Durand line as the border with Pakistan.

Tehrike Taliban came into the picture in 2007. Pakistani army lost its leverage with TTP when it commenced military actions in NWFP, and therefore allowed USA to target its leaders by use of drones. TTP has been conducting operations against Pakistan army ever since and even civilians.

Today there is the strange dichotomy in the Pakistani army, which, even while giving all out support to Afgan Taliban, is hell bent on destroying TTP ie Pakistani Taliban.

     Will it succeed? Not to forget the basic raw material for Taliban, Afgan or Pakistan are Pashtuns.

Tribal loyalties demand badal for every member of the tribe killed. Can Pakistan really separate or divide the two Taliban overt time and achieve its objects of a puppet Taliban in Afghanistan and completely decimated Pakistani Taliban ie TTP?

Only time will tell.