Impact of US Taliban Pact on Afghanistan, Asia and Middle East


The USA Taliban agreement signed a couple of days back in Doha is a fig leaf, an attempt to cover American failure in Afghanistan. It is a triumph of the tenacity of the Taliban and the Pakistani army, pitted against the most powerful country in the world.

USA and its army were, and are, way out of their depth in Afghanistan. USA has the most powerful armed forces on the planet today, and also the largest economy. However American policy makers, and think tanks, are as yet unable to make a transition from pitched land battles, massive air and fire power of WWII, to fighting in penny pockets against experts in guerrilla warfare. Americans have failed to understand and address the resilience of cultures built up over centuries of intercinine tribal loyalties and warfare, adverse geography, ability to withstand the harshest punishments that can be delivered in a life time.

Not to forget, ostrich like behaviour in dealing with crooked ‘allies’ who work on a daily basis to fool them and openly support its enemies.

America under President Trump is trying not to repeat the tragi comedy of the evacuation of the American embassy in Saigon. America does not want the world to laugh at it openly once again. Asians call it ‘saving face’.

Afghanistan

Taliban will take over the government. The lives of elected members of the present government including that of president Ghani will be in danger.

There are nearly 3 million registered and unregistered afghan refugees in Pakistan. Approximately 300,000 have been compelled to return to Afghanistan, consequent to Pakistani army pressure. What will be the policy of Pakistan towards those who have lived for nearly four decades in Pakistan. How will Afghanistan manage the torrent of returning refugees?

All educated Afghans and who can manage have already migrated abroad. Soon the few who are left will desert Afghanistan, after all survival comes first.

Back to Medeival ages. No more democracy or even a semblance. Women will be the most hit and deprived. No more schools or education for girl. Shariah laws will be implemented. *

5000 Taliban prisoners are to be released from prisons before 10 March, by Afghan government. This is an understanding between USA and Taliban. Afghan government was not consulted on this . President Ghani knows and is genuinely scared of the problems these Taliban extremists will create and is reluctant to release them.

OPIUM Afghanistan will be among the largest producers of opium. Now under protection and control of Taliban. Menace of increasing number of drug addicts will have to be borne by successive generations of humanity around the world.

Impact on Asia & Middle East

A very positive and favourable ambiance will be created for China and Pakistan.

India, Iran, Iraq Syria and Israel will face mounting problems from dispersal of armed and indoctrinated Sunni militants. Armed and dangerous Taliban and its volunteers from many nations, who were engaging Americans in Afghanistan are now free to be relocated to other areas like Kashmir, Syria, Palestine , and even Africa.

India will be very adversely affected. Installation of a Taliban government in Afghanistan will be a major boost to the geopolitical outreach of Pakistan and its army. It is a vindication of the Pakistani army policy of supporting the Taliban for over three decades, and the ability of its army to fool the Americans not only to part with billions in ‘aid’ but also accept thousands of casualties and shove trillions of dollars down the drain, being engaged in an unwinnable war.

Pakistan will have full support China, and will push in maximum number of terrorists from across the borde into Kashmir and other parts of India. Terrorist training camps will be shifted in to Afghanistan from Pakistan.
All positive efforts by India to improve the lives of Afghans people, through infrastructural projects have gone to waste.
India will now have to work with a fanatical Muslim setup with a medieval mind set.

Prince Salman of Saudi Arabia will also need to be extra careful. Fanatical Wahabis will flood into Saudi Arabia and its neighbouring states, and attempt to destabilise Salman government.

PakistanI Dilemma

Taliban leadership is no pushover.

Pakistan has given shelter to Taliban leaders and their families since 2001. It has provided unstilted support to Taliban in terms of arms, ammunition, intelligence and security against the greatest odds. Pakistan Naturally expects reciprocity from Taliban leaders, a pliable and sympathetic Taliban government in Afghanistan. Pakistani army dream of a base in the rear in case of a showdown with India will be realised.

Durand Line

Durand Line and Pushtoons

However A decade down the line, Pakistan will however need to be careful in handling the Taliban leadership. The euphoria of installation of Taliban government in Afghanistan which couldn’t have happened without full Pakistani army support will be a memory after a decade.

Not to forget that Afghanistan governments have never accepted the Durand line as the legitimate border of Afghanistan. Pashtuns reside on either side of the border, in Afgan Pakistan. How far is the day when Afghanistan will push for return of Pashtun areas from Pakistan?

The border is porus and there is no way it can be made hard, not with so much interaction across the border and Afghanistan being a landlocked country. Pakistan is the largest trading partner of Afghanistan today and is likely to be so in to the distant future. Any attempt to restrict movement of people and trade will sour relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

It will be interesting to watch how the Afghans (wily Taliban’) take advantage of the Pakistani army’s weaknesses and demands for ‘strategic depth’ and protection for Chinese ventures. &

China will be able to take advantage of the changed situation to access the mineral resources of Afghanistan and its market. China will manage initially indirectly through Pakistani army and later directly with the Taliban. Chinese will need access to mineral resources in Afghanistan and also need to keep the Taliban militants out of Uygur, away from its own Islamic underbelly. Taliban leaders are well known for their voracious appetites for wealth, power and armaments. So the Chinese will have no problems in having ‘friendly relations’ with the Taliban.

US and Taliban sign deal to end 18-year Afghan war

Do Taliban belong to Afghanistan or Pakistan? What does Taliban mean and what do they want?


“The word Taliban comes from tālib, “student” in Arabic”.

Under Zia Ul Haq, the then president of Pakistan, a number of madarssas  were opened to cater for fighters to take on the Army of USSR which had moved in to Afghanistan. USA was very Keen to ensure that Russians lose their war in Afghanistan and lose face around the world. USA and Saudi Arabia funded Pakistan and also provided heavy weapons including Stinger missiles for use against Russian aircraft.

      Hundreds of uneducated and unemployed Pashtun youth were brainwashed in these  Madarassas with extreme fanatical Islamic views and let loose inAfganistan. Pashtuns form the majority of Fighters in Taliban, though there are Turkmens, Tajiks, Uzbeks and even a few Hazaras.

Afganistan has over ten ethnic groups. It is a land that has never allowed any external force to dominate for any length of time. Tribal loyalties are on the top of the cultural scale followed by Islam. A Central government in Kabul  has limited say in how things are governed in the urban areas,  and  almost none in the hinterlands.

Consequent to the Russian army pulling out, Taliban took over the country and established a government. Pakistan was the first to recognise Taliban government and persuaded Saudi Arabia to follow suit. Pakistan assumed that Taliban government would be a puppet, working under its directions. But the Afgan Taliban, even though funded trained and supported by Pakistan proved difficult to handle.

Taliban giving protection to members of Al Qaida, Osama bin Laden, subsequent US intervention and displacement of Taliban are a part of history. Under attack by US forces Taliban moved to Pakistan where it was given sanctuary.

After the debacles of 1965 and 1971 Pakistani army had formulated a policy of ‘depth’, ie Afghanistan will form a safe staging area for its forces in case of problems with india on its eastern front. This meant a pliable government in Afghanistan. However with Taliban having been sent packing and a democratically elected government in Afghanistan in  place Pakistan found itself without its perceived ‘depth’.

Therefore for the past nearly two decades Pakistan has been needling the Taliban to fight and destabilise the Afghan government, which the international community had managed to set up against all odds. Today Taliban controls nearly half of Afghanistan, and USA is planning to withdraw its 8500 troops in Afghanistan. If that happens Approximately 12000 allied troops will also leave. Afgan Security forces are no match today against Taliban which is being backed by Pakistani army. It is only a matter of time before Taliban moves into Kabul as apart of a coalition government or even a complete domination. This is what Pakistan is aiming for. A puppet Taliban regime in Afghanistan.

As mentioned earlier, Pashtuns form the Majority of fighters in the Taliban. Unfortunately for Pashtuns, the Durand Line, an artificial divide, a perfidy perpetrated by the British has separated the ethnic Pashtuns in two, Afghanistan has never accepted the Durand line as the border with Pakistan.

Tehrike Taliban came into the picture in 2007. Pakistani army lost its leverage with TTP when it commenced military actions in NWFP, and therefore allowed USA to target its leaders by use of drones. TTP has been conducting operations against Pakistan army ever since and even civilians.

Today there is the strange dichotomy in the Pakistani army, which, even while giving all out support to Afgan Taliban, is hell bent on destroying TTP ie Pakistani Taliban.

     Will it succeed? Not to forget the basic raw material for Taliban, Afgan or Pakistan are Pashtuns.

Tribal loyalties demand badal for every member of the tribe killed. Can Pakistan really separate or divide the two Taliban overt time and achieve its objects of a puppet Taliban in Afghanistan and completely decimated Pakistani Taliban ie TTP?

Only time will tell.

Pakistan Elections 2013: Colorful with Caste Calculations and Lunatic Fringe


                                   

Elections in the sub continent are always colorful. In Pakistan of 2013 it is  more so with the people full of life if not joy at the never before prospect of voting in an election not distorted by the ISI and the Army. And a civilian government which has run a full term of 5 years, never before has this happened.

      Even if the Army is not directly interfering this time its presence will be felt in every booth. Gen Kayani has offered ‘protection’ by the army of every booth.

      Baddies this time are the Taliban and other fanatic organisations who have openly declared that they will adopt any means to ensure that the elections are not held. Repeated bomb blasts at election meetings , murders and kidnapping of candidates indicate that they have  the capacity to create a great deal of fear among the candidates and the public.

        The latest is the abduction of Haider Ali Gilani, son of former PM Yousuf Raza Gilani in his home constituency in the outskirts of Multan. The abduction was not a an amateur or ham handed affair, clearly planned and organised by professional terrorists.

       Nawaz Sharif is expected to reap the maximum number of seats, however PML -S will not have a clear majority. Najam Sethi the caretaker in Punjab has moved out a great many beauracrats who would have helped Sharif to influence the voting pattern.

      PPP is on the back foot this time. With many allegations of corruption and mis-governance. Death threats forced Bilawal to opt out. Candidates are afraid to campaign freely.

              

IMRAN KHAN while he may have won the world cup in cricket for Pakistan has no real experience  of Pakistani politics. How far his image of a honest person boosted by his recent hospitalization due to an injury received while campaigning will bring in votes is yet to be seen.

MUSHARRAF AN UNSOLDIERLY SOLDIER: HIS COMEUPPANCE AT LAST ?


An opposite of what a honorable soldier is expected to be

       A rogue soldier and a rogue general who cheated his way to be a president of Pakistan, ditched all his friends, lied without a sense of shame.

     He acted in a most unsoldierly manner when he plotted the Kargil Fiasco, depriving the gallant dead soldiers of Pakistan right to a decent burial as war heroes.

      He cheated the people of Pakistan, dismissed a government elected by the people of Pakistan.He cheated the government of  of India and also cheated the US administration.

     The US administration was willing to be cheated. Indian Prime Minister was willing to be cheated .  No one need weep for them.

      But the hundreds of lives lost on the Kargil, Afganistan, and Baluchistan.

      He was an avid sympathiser and supported of  terrorists. He was also the bosom pal of the CIA.

EXtracts from Indian Express of 30 April 13

 ‘Former military ruler Pervez Musharraf was today sent to judicial custody for a fortnight by a Pakistani anti-terrorism court in the Benazir Bhutto assassination case.’

         ‘The court in Rawalpindi had said at the last hearing that Musharraf should be produced for today’s hearing but he was not presented before the judge for security reasons, said chief prosecutor Chaudhry Zulfiqar Ali of the Federal Investigation Agency.’

           ‘The FIA’s joint investigation team had completed its investigation against Musharraf and gathered “solid evidence” that “directly connects the accused with the commission of the offences with which he has been charged”, Ali said. “Musharraf has tried to shift liability and responsibility on others but there is solid evidence which proves he is guilty,” he said.’

        ‘Musharraf returned to Pakistan on March 24 after a nearly] four-year long self imposed exile abroad to contest the May 11 general elections. However, Pakistani authorities disqualified him from contesting the election, effectively putting an end to his ambitions for a political comeback.’

SIM CARDS: Perverts and Terrorists & Criminals Have Easy Access


SMS perverts use fake papers to hoodwink cops

V Narayan TNN

Mumbai: The incessant ringing of her cellphone in the dead of the night woke up Reema (name changed) from her deep slumber. The Chembur resident, who works as an executive with a private firm, answered the phone, only to hear the maniacal laughter of aman. A few days later, Reema received an obscene text message from the same number. To make matters worse, Reema’s two female flatmates also started receiving vulgar SMSes from the same number. They then approached the police. “The man told us the cops will never find him as he had procured six SIM cards using fake documents,” said Reema.

     The cops traced the number to a Goregaon man and learnt that he was unaware that his papers had been used to obtain the SIM card.

     Reema and her flatmates are not alone. Many women are still waiting for the perverts, who harassed them through obscene SMSes and emails, to be brought to justice. Investigators, too, admit that very rarely do such persons get caught. “Mobile service providers do not thoroughly check documents while giving out SIM cards. This negligent approach helps the perverts get away with their crime,” said an officer.

    According to the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), Mumbai has the maximum number of registered cases of sexual harassment or obscenity through SMS, MMS or email.

Between 2007 and 2012 (till August), 84 such cases were registered in the city. When it comes to states, Maharashtra, too, doesn’t fare better. The NCRB data shows Maharashtra has the third highest number of such cases (169) registered in the country in the same period.

    JCP (crime) Himanshu Roy said, “We will take up the matter with the information technology ministry so that proper action is taken against erring service providers.”

     A spokesperson of a leading telecom operator said the cops were trying to pass the buck by blaming operators. Times View: Crack the whip B oth service providers and cops need to be more proactive when it comes to helping victims of online/mobile sexual harassment. The trauma that the victim goes through should not be compounded by official apathy and the gloves should be off while dealing with these predators. They are a real enough menace though they may be operating in the virtual world.

Raj Thakre: Becomes a Hero :Aug 2012


Raj Thakre to the Fore

     

        SEA OF PROTESTORS: An MNS rally wends its way from Girgaum Chowpatty to Azad Maidan on Tuesday. Police, which had granted permission only for a meeting at Azad Maidan, initiated action against the party

       Considered a purely negative force in the political arena, his astute move in the aftermath of violence 0n Aug 11 by some Muslims in Mumbai protesting the NE incidents has given him a larger than life image. That the violence was  of planned and organised is not in doubt. The manner in which the incident was dealt with by the police has its positive and negetive features. The fact that the whole affair was controlled by the police in a matter of hours without  firing and causing deaths needs to be applauded. However this was at the cost of many police men and women beaten up by the rampaging mobs. Police did not use their weapons, some were even snatched away. Buses and cars were set on fire. News channel vehicles were burnt and correspondents attacked. Police morale touched the rock bottom.

      Suddenly Mumbai felt helpless once again. The same way they felt on 26/11. Congress which is ruling Maharashtra failed to assuage the fear and despondency of Mumbaikars.

     Raj Thakre stepped in where no other party was willing to tread. He announced a massive rally on 21st Aug to protest against the violent incidents.

     Congress NCP government blustered and threatened, but could not prevent a massive turn out by MNS. The people of Mumbai felt that at last there was some one to voice their feelings. The young policeman who walked up the stage to present Raj with a flower described the mood of the avrage policeman in Mumbai.

Raj Thakre became a Hero overnight.

Raj in show of strength, warns of threat from Bangladeshis

‘Migrants Had A Big Role In Aug 11 Riot’

Ambarish Mishra TNN

        Mumbai: Waving what appeared to be a Bangladeshi passport and warning that illegal migration from the eastern neighbour would destroy Mumbai, Mahasrashtra Navnirman Sena chief Raj Thackeray on Tuesday addressed a massive pro-Hindu rally in answer to the August 11 gathering of Muslims to protest attacks in Assam.

       Slamming the violence during the Muslim rally, which like the one on Tuesday paralysed south Mumbai, he said, “There is a boundary which no one should cross. There should be no physical assaults on policemen and officials. My party will always stand by the cops whenever such cases happen,” Thackeray said.

      Thackeray said the influx illegal Bangladeshi migrants posed a threat to Mumbai. “They have safe havens in UP and Bihar. From there, the illegal migrants come to Mumbai to foment trouble,” he said and accused Bangladeshi migrants of playing a major role in the August 11 violence.

      He denied of playing the Hindu card and said his only “dharma” was the “Maharashtra dharma”. “Any person who tries to take law into his hands, beats up cops, mediapersons, molest women cops deserves the severest condemnation from me and my party,” the MNS leader said.

      Thackeray blamed the Congress-led DF government and home minister R R Patil for creating an administrative hurdle for the MNS rally. “Similar queries were not asked when Raza Academy held protest rally on August 11 at Azad Maidan. Raza Academy has a dubious track record. Samajwadi Party leader Abu Asim Azmi had delivered a provocative speech in Bhiwandi at the Raza Academy rally few years ago. At the end of the rally miscreants slaughtered two cops. Why was such an organization given permission to hold a rally on August 11?”

      South Mumbai creaked under its second political rally in 10 days, which derailed traffic and disrupted the city’s first working day after an extended weekend. Over 50,000 MNS men gathered at Chowpatty and marched in a show of strength along the Marine Drive-Princess Street-Dhobitalao stretch to the rally venue at Azad Maidan.

    Police, who had granted permission only for a meeting at the Azad Maidan, initiated action against the party. Mumbai Police booked the MNS for organising the rally at Girgaum Chowpatty without permission.

Oak Creek Gurudwara Reopens


US gurdwara reopens, leaves a bullet hole intact as reminder

New York/Washington:

Six days after a deadly shooting struck an Oak Creek gurdwara, the shrine on Friday opened its gates again to the public, with over 100 community members returning to clean it ahead of the funeral for the victims.

      The members of the shrine said that a lone bullet hole in a metal door frame at the gurdwara will remain there as a poignant reminder of the tragedy.

        The gurdwara in Oak Creek in Wisconsin — where a ‘neo-nazi’ ex-army veteran, Wade Michael Page, went on a shooting spree killing six Sikhs on Sunday before dying of a self-inflicted gun shot wound — “is now open for the public”, Jagajit Singh Sandhu, a member of the temple committee, said. A lone bullet hole remained in a metal door frame, which members say won’t be repaired.

      The doorway leads to main prayer area, where the only female victim — 41-year-old Paramjit Kaur — was killed. PTI

     BLEEDING HEARTS: Family and friends gather at Oak Creek High School on Friday to mourn the victims of the gurdwara massacre