Impact of US Taliban Pact on Afghanistan, Asia and Middle East


The USA Taliban agreement signed a couple of days back in Doha is a fig leaf, an attempt to cover American failure in Afghanistan. It is a triumph of the tenacity of the Taliban and the Pakistani army, pitted against the most powerful country in the world.

USA and its army were, and are, way out of their depth in Afghanistan. USA has the most powerful armed forces on the planet today, and also the largest economy. However American policy makers, and think tanks, are as yet unable to make a transition from pitched land battles, massive air and fire power of WWII, to fighting in penny pockets against experts in guerrilla warfare. Americans have failed to understand and address the resilience of cultures built up over centuries of intercinine tribal loyalties and warfare, adverse geography, ability to withstand the harshest punishments that can be delivered in a life time.

Not to forget, ostrich like behaviour in dealing with crooked ‘allies’ who work on a daily basis to fool them and openly support its enemies.

America under President Trump is trying not to repeat the tragi comedy of the evacuation of the American embassy in Saigon. America does not want the world to laugh at it openly once again. Asians call it ‘saving face’.

Afghanistan

Taliban will take over the government. The lives of elected members of the present government including that of president Ghani will be in danger.

There are nearly 3 million registered and unregistered afghan refugees in Pakistan. Approximately 300,000 have been compelled to return to Afghanistan, consequent to Pakistani army pressure. What will be the policy of Pakistan towards those who have lived for nearly four decades in Pakistan. How will Afghanistan manage the torrent of returning refugees?

All educated Afghans and who can manage have already migrated abroad. Soon the few who are left will desert Afghanistan, after all survival comes first.

Back to Medeival ages. No more democracy or even a semblance. Women will be the most hit and deprived. No more schools or education for girl. Shariah laws will be implemented. *

5000 Taliban prisoners are to be released from prisons before 10 March, by Afghan government. This is an understanding between USA and Taliban. Afghan government was not consulted on this . President Ghani knows and is genuinely scared of the problems these Taliban extremists will create and is reluctant to release them.

OPIUM Afghanistan will be among the largest producers of opium. Now under protection and control of Taliban. Menace of increasing number of drug addicts will have to be borne by successive generations of humanity around the world.

Impact on Asia & Middle East

A very positive and favourable ambiance will be created for China and Pakistan.

India, Iran, Iraq Syria and Israel will face mounting problems from dispersal of armed and indoctrinated Sunni militants. Armed and dangerous Taliban and its volunteers from many nations, who were engaging Americans in Afghanistan are now free to be relocated to other areas like Kashmir, Syria, Palestine , and even Africa.

India will be very adversely affected. Installation of a Taliban government in Afghanistan will be a major boost to the geopolitical outreach of Pakistan and its army. It is a vindication of the Pakistani army policy of supporting the Taliban for over three decades, and the ability of its army to fool the Americans not only to part with billions in ‘aid’ but also accept thousands of casualties and shove trillions of dollars down the drain, being engaged in an unwinnable war.

Pakistan will have full support China, and will push in maximum number of terrorists from across the borde into Kashmir and other parts of India. Terrorist training camps will be shifted in to Afghanistan from Pakistan.
All positive efforts by India to improve the lives of Afghans people, through infrastructural projects have gone to waste.
India will now have to work with a fanatical Muslim setup with a medieval mind set.

Prince Salman of Saudi Arabia will also need to be extra careful. Fanatical Wahabis will flood into Saudi Arabia and its neighbouring states, and attempt to destabilise Salman government.

PakistanI Dilemma

Taliban leadership is no pushover.

Pakistan has given shelter to Taliban leaders and their families since 2001. It has provided unstilted support to Taliban in terms of arms, ammunition, intelligence and security against the greatest odds. Pakistan Naturally expects reciprocity from Taliban leaders, a pliable and sympathetic Taliban government in Afghanistan. Pakistani army dream of a base in the rear in case of a showdown with India will be realised.

Durand Line

Durand Line and Pushtoons

However A decade down the line, Pakistan will however need to be careful in handling the Taliban leadership. The euphoria of installation of Taliban government in Afghanistan which couldn’t have happened without full Pakistani army support will be a memory after a decade.

Not to forget that Afghanistan governments have never accepted the Durand line as the legitimate border of Afghanistan. Pashtuns reside on either side of the border, in Afgan Pakistan. How far is the day when Afghanistan will push for return of Pashtun areas from Pakistan?

The border is porus and there is no way it can be made hard, not with so much interaction across the border and Afghanistan being a landlocked country. Pakistan is the largest trading partner of Afghanistan today and is likely to be so in to the distant future. Any attempt to restrict movement of people and trade will sour relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

It will be interesting to watch how the Afghans (wily Taliban’) take advantage of the Pakistani army’s weaknesses and demands for ‘strategic depth’ and protection for Chinese ventures. &

China will be able to take advantage of the changed situation to access the mineral resources of Afghanistan and its market. China will manage initially indirectly through Pakistani army and later directly with the Taliban. Chinese will need access to mineral resources in Afghanistan and also need to keep the Taliban militants out of Uygur, away from its own Islamic underbelly. Taliban leaders are well known for their voracious appetites for wealth, power and armaments. So the Chinese will have no problems in having ‘friendly relations’ with the Taliban.

US and Taliban sign deal to end 18-year Afghan war